Abstract

Komodo (Varanus komodoensis) with its wildlife is the only one in the world that lives in the Komodo National Park (KNP), East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. The conservation efforts are carried out by considering the carrying capacity to remain in line with the principles of sustainable tourism management. This study aims to analyze the carrying capacity of the visits carrying capacity on Komodo Island and Padar Island. The method used in this research is system dynamics analysis. The number of Komodo dragons in 2045 is estimated to increase to 4000-4500 Komodo dragons in KNP or around 2500 Komodo dragons in Komodo Island and Padar Island since the number of preys is still quite available in their habitat. However, without the implementation of low carbon development, there will be pressure on its population, which can drop to 800-900 Komodo dragons both on Komodo Island and Padar Island. Meanwhile, the temperature increase occurs until the year 2045 which reaches 0.8°C. In terms of the ideal number of visits on Komodo Island based on the carrying capacity calculation of 219,000 visits/year, on Padar Island the ideal number of visits is 39,420 visits/year and it can be still increased up to 2-2.5 times

Keyword

• Carrying capacity,
• komodo dragon,
• komodo national park,
• simulation,
• system dynamics modelling