Abstract

Land use/cover (LUC) is a substantial factor in land management and can influence policy in an area. LUC has the potential to change due to physical, economic, and social aspects. This study aims to analyze the spatial land use and cover changes (LUCC) in Deli Serdang Regency for the 2010 to 2020 period and predict LUC in 2030. The analysis was run by applying the Cellular Automata-Markov Chain method. The driving factors used in this modeling are the distance to the road, the distance to the river, population density, the distance to the district capital, and the distance to Medan city. The results showed that Kappa for image classification was 0.86. The dominant type of LUC in Deli Serdang Regency is a plantation, with a total area of more than 45%, followed by paddy fields, dryland agriculture, forests, and settlements/built-up areas. LUCC model validation obtained a kappa value of 0.89 (very good category) and can be applicated for predicting land use change models in 2030. By 2030, the settlements/built-up area and dryland agriculture will increase significantly, which 21,060 ha and 4,587 ha, respectively, while forests, plantations, and paddy fields will decrease significantly by around 9,266 ha, respectively, respectively 8,306 ha and 7,806 ha.

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